Updates Updates

It's now been about seven months since I made the transition from N Idaho to Las Vegas. I'm still alive...

Much as I have seen some wild, crazy things here in Las Vegas, we have also seen some wild, crazy things happen in the stock markets. I've held onto my shares of GSI, MPEL, AOB, GLBL, ITLN through it all. I've added to my holdings, sold off shares of other companies, and picked up some new ones.

I added Wells Fargo (WFC) as a new holding and re-introduced myself to NovaMed (NOVA).

It's been a frantic six months, and I've watch my portfolio sink deeper and deeper into the red. But you know what happened? Things started to turn around. Despite the economic conditions, the US stock markets have risen substantially over the past 6-7 weeks.

Shares of companies that I've owned for a while are returning to normal, and I just sold NOVA again for a clean 35% gain. Wells Fargo and I are going to be in this for the long haul, however. They have a very nice dividend (which I'm reinvesting of course) and I think it will pay off nicely.

Looking forward though, I'm not sure the current bullish trend will sustain. There's a remarkable amount of negative economic news out there, and yet the markets have continued to rise. Chrysler went bankrupt, and the GDP fell by 6.1% - more than expected. Yet the market rose.

Where can we go from here?

I'm afraid down is the answer. The latest job loss report is expected this week, with another 580,000 jobs gone in April. While this would be the fewest since October, more than a half million tax-paying, grocery-buying, vehicle-driving Americans will have lost their jobs. The continued unemployment IS having an impact on our country - it just seems the markets haven't recognized it yet.

We also have the results of the bank stress tests coming out this week - assuming the Fed doesn't delay again. Goldman Sachs should be fine. Wells Fargo is also a likely safe one. B of A has already been warned by the Fed about their status. It will be interesting to see how much information they make public, and just what that info is. My guess is we'll hear mostly "good news" because it's in the government's best financial interest to keep the bull market going.

There was a very interesting commentary on MarketWatch last week that I would encourage anyone to read. The title is Sell in May and Go Away. The basic premise is that the bull trend isn't sustainable and we'll see another large drop in the near future. That is also my gut feeling.

I hope I'm wrong. I would love to watch my holdings to pare their losses and continue to see my portfolio value rise. I'm just not sure we're there yet.

That being said, if/when stock prices sink again, I've got my eye on some stocks I'd love to hold! If I can get them on sale - even better.

Last thought....click through the comments on the MarketWatch article. On page 7 (roughly), there is a decent technical comment from john qp that may give you a more technical insight. Don't worry if you don't understand Elliot Waves... you don't need to to get the general gist.

By the way, I was recently approved for a mortgage loan, so I've been house hunting lately! The Las Vegas real estate market has been positively hammered, so I may soon be a home owner!