Sunday, May 17, 2009

Wall Street's Near Future: What to do About Personal Finance

When it comes to managing my own stock portfolio, I'll admit to some serious head scratching.

Trying to predict the stock market with any real accuracy is an exercise in futility.

It's kind of like predicting the weather where I'm from in North Idaho. You can scan the horizon, take measure of the clouds, see what others are saying and kick the dirt around a little bit. Your timing may not be perfect, but hopefully you can stay dry on your next outing.

The markets are a similar beast. You can scan the quarterly earnings, take measure of the 30 day trends, see what Warren Buffet is buying, and kick around the statements from the C-levels in the companies. Your timing may not be perfect, but hopefully you can pick out a safe investment or two that will bring you healthy returns.

Right now I think we're going to see some further rain clouds.

I've been saying it for a while now. The 30% gains we saw from the "bottom" in March were based on almost nothing. The economic news isn't good - it's simply not quite as bad as it's been. I think investors are looking for something a little more solid, and so am I.

So where does that leave my portfolio?

Well I actually maintain two separate accounts. One has my buy & hold money, and the other has my active-trading money. The buy and hold account is staying where it is. After watching the market drop off last week, I regret a little bit not locking in the gains (or at least the creep back towards even!), but it's my buy & hold account for a reason.

Some of the stocks in that account have an amazing dividend that I will happily sit back and collect every quarter (Enterprise Products Partners [EPD]). Others I simply like what I see in the future (Melco Crown [MPEL]).

My other account is what I'm interested in these days. I mentioned before that I'm looking into gold stocks (AUY). I also like Taseko Mines (TGB) as a copper play, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to buy that yet. In the near term, I'm short on financial stocks. (Short meaning I see the stock price dropping or staying at the current level)

I still like Wells Fargo (WFC), but I'm going to wait a little bit before getting back in. I see Citi (C) and Bank of America (BAC) staying low for a while.

I also am short on home builders. The housing market is starting to adjust and we're seeing the pace of purchases pick back up - but that's because prices are incredibly low. I don't think many builders will be back to major work anytime soon.

For now, I would suggest stocks with a beta around 1 or lower (meaning the stock will follow the market, or if <1, it will head the opposite direction).

I also am looking for companies that offer products that people will always buy. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a very solid company with products that are always in demand. They also have a wonderful dividend yield of 3.54%!

A sense of patience is probably prudent these days. I think the market is probably going to head lower for a month or two. With earnings reports behind, there isn't much economic news to focus on, other than the weekly/monthly jobs reports. It might not hurt to simply leave your cash in a high-yield savings or checking account.

Don't have a checking account with a nice yield? Try ING Direct. I use them to stash my stock market cash before deciding to invest it. They offer checking accounts with an APY of up to 1.65%.

That APY might help keep you dry while you eye the sky for the next clear and sunny day.

As always, any individual stock mentions are purely suggestions and personal opinion. Doing your own due diligence is a must for any sort of financial investment.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Nice writeup. Hey, are you on twitter, Zack? If so, I would like to connect with you as I am into investing as well. Follow me @JamesFowlkes.

L8Tr,
james

Zack S. said...

I sure am James. @zacksimpson.

I'll find you if I can, and thanks for the comment.